Interesting read. I'm sorry to throw a wet sock at it, just a little perspective. First, your statement that "Deduct those numbers from Johnson’s pre-election polls and you have the reason that Trump won all three states." This is not proven and may not be true. It is not valid to just assume that the votes for Johnson, or Stein, would have gone to Hillary. They may have all not voted, or some may have voted for tRump. The disdain for Hillary, whether you believe it to be misplaced or not, was palpable.
Second, as you correctly point out in your article, the only important count in this country is the Electoral College. In 2016 tRump won by a total of around 77 thousand votes spread across the three states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Flip those EC votes and HER would have won. But the enthusiasm for the Biden victory is just as dubious. He won by an even SMALLER margin, around 45 thousand votes, across Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia, all states that voted for tRump in 2016. Flip those states and it would be a tie and R legislatures or congressmen would have given the election to tRump.
tRump's base is basically the tea party on steroids. They have been around for a while, are single issue voters (Keep America White Again), and are passionate. This makes them a formidable force to be reckoned with for years to come. We must continue to fear and loathe them and make sure our turnout is as big or bigger than last time. No slacking off.