Still wrong. From the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

"Real average hourly earnings decreased 0.8 percent, seasonally adjusted, from September 2020 to September 2021. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with no change in the average workweek resulted in a 0.8-percent decrease in real average weekly earnings over this period."

www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.nr0.htm

You make other points that are not realistic. First, there was no labor "shortage" two years ago. The population has not declined that much in those 2 years, despite 700K Covid deaths, many of which were already retired. Only Georgia has actually calculated a population decline. In fact the population actually grew by 3 million between 2019 and 2020. And the fertility rate would have zero effect on a current labor "shortage", as anyone born in the last two years would not be entering the full time labor force for at least 16 years. So population decline is not much of a factor either.

www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm

Next, you cite automation as a cause for a labor shortage. But that flies in the face of reality - automation has decreased the demand for labor, particularly low-skilled labor. Your point about self-driving trucks is silly. Even those will almost surely require a driver to be in the cab while the truck is moving. The shortage of truck drivers has been building for a long time, long before any discussion about self-driving trucks, because the pay is not adequate for the long hours and the demanding working conditions and risk. The problem is exacerbated by the backlogs at ports due to Covid. So, not automation either.

Then you place partial blame on the Green Revolution. That is so wrong. The small part of the Green Revolution that is actually functional, mostly solar, has created thousands of new jobs, good paying jobs that are not the ones having trouble being filled. It is mostly low-skilled jobs with a "shortage". So, not the Green Revolution.

Next you claim that rising wealth makes people not want to work. That might be a valid point, if it were at all true. The fact is that the average wealth of most Americans has not grown at all since the 80s. Almost all the growth in wealth in the past 45 years has been with the richest 10% of Americans, mostly the top 1%. Half the US population can't come up with $400 to fix their car. And a $600 stimulus check is to tide people over, it is not a source of real wealth.

You claim that the drop in the labor force is "not large". I beg to differ - this one really outs you as not having done your research. The LFPR, previously over 65%, has been dropping for many years, and dropped below 59% during the financial crash of 2008-2009. It had been steadily recovering since 2011, then fell off a cliff to 51% in April 2020 as the economy shut down. And if you are not in the labor force, you are not eligible for UI, so these are people not looking for work. The LFPR has been recovering since, but is still at about the low point in 2009. Between March 2020 and today that is a drop of about 1.3 million fewer people either working or looking for work. But as the economy keeps recovering, more will return to the labor force, minus the ones who permanently retired.

On top of that we have the actual unemployed, those looking for work. The number of weekly claims went from about 205K in Feb. 2020 to over 6 million two months later, but is back down to under 300K, pretty much full employment. The UI rate of 4.6% is not far from the lowest it reached in 2/20 of 3.5%, after surging to 15% two months later. The 4.6% is even exaggerated, as the recent increase in the LFPR is keeping that number higher than it would be if the LFPR was stable. The fact that there is so little unemployment but employers are still crying about a labor shortage is a clear indication that the labor force is driving a large part of the "shortage".

www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/employment-population-

ratio.htm

oui.doleta.gov/unemploy/wkclaims/report.asp

Your point about immigration is somewhat valid, but not supported by the facts. Between 2017 and 2019 (the last year we have data) the number of non-citizens in the US rose by about 79 thousand (essentially zero by historical standards), and there have not been any significant losses reported since then. So, nope, not immigration either (although increasing the number of immigrants allowed in would ease the "shortage", but is not necessary).

www.census.gov/topics/population/foreign-born/data/tables/cps-tables.2017.List_2030222427.html

I don't understand your point about Gen Z or millenials. Too many people make too much out of generational differences.

Finally, there is the fact that when the economy opened up, demand for workers exploded. People began going out again, flying again, going to concerts again. The sheer demand volume would make it harder to fill jobs quickly enough even if every worker wanted back in immediately. If you don't believe me check out the opinion of Nobel laureate Paul Krugman at the NY Times. This is his explanation.

www.nytimes.com/2021/06/04/opinion/jobs-report-labor-shortage-hiring.html

Most of what you blame for the labor "shortage" is not supported by data. This "shortage" is only in the past year since we opened the economy back up. The only relevant changes in the past couple of years are the labor force participation rate, supply chain failures, and fears of catching Covid. Plus, American workers have been re-thinking their lives since Covid started. Millions are still working from home and do not want to come into the workplace, risking catching Covid. But the "shortage" is mostly people holding out longer before getting a new job. You can see this in the slow recovery of the LFPR. We call this "transitional unemployment" if they are looking, and the delay is considered positive, as it results in a better match between a worker's skills and job requirements. They will find jobs eventually, but the lowest paid workers - restaurant workers, cleaners, manual laborers - may hold out longer if they can. The "shortage" will be gone after a while, sooner than you think. Literally sooner, since you think the labor market will never recover.

You clearly put a lot of effort into this. But you did not look up any numbers to check your ideas. I find this really frustrating. You should not publish information or opinions like this without researching them and fully understanding them first. There is lots of true information out there. Misinformation is debilitating, whether it is deliberate or not, and can lead people to make wrong decisions. People, particularly business owners, might become uneasy if they believe, incorrectly, that there will forever be a labor "shortage".

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p.s. - I'm reading some of your other stories, and they are very interesting. You are a good writer. When it comes to economics, that has been my career and I get bothered by incorrect info, so sometimes I come down a little hard. Please don't take it personally.