Michael Hurst
4 min readNov 15, 2021

--

There is so much wrong with this that it requires a full rebuttal. If it was just a discussion of your opinion, I wouldn’t bother. But you pepper the story with statistics which makes it look like it is a scientific proof of your position. You even start it out with the attention grabber “SCIENCE!!” But you cherry pick a few statistics, many of them completely irrelevant to the discussion, and you add your personal interpretations that are mostly so poor that they are almost the opposite of what a learned analysis would produce.

Let’s start with your statement that there is a greater difference within genders than between genders, then you repeat this by the observation that the difference within is measured in feet while the difference between is measured in inches. So frickin’ what? That is completely irrelevant. The only statistical difference that matters in this discussion is that between genders. Not to mention that at the elite level of many sports, a difference of a few inches is quite often sufficient to lead to a championship or a gold medal.

Then your interpretation of your own charts is either misreading, or I contend, misleading. The first chart (which is mistitled as a “Weight Histogram” by the way) shows clearly that the average man is significantly and substantially taller than the average woman, and that majority of men are significantly and substantially taller than the majority of women. You make a big deal out of “overlap” contending that there is ‘complete overlap”, which there is not. But overlap is a statistical term normally reserved for confidence intervals, which are irrelevant for this discussion. Overlap in secondary categories is common, but of low importance, in numerous comparisons between binary variables. The fact that there are both men and women in many of the height categories is much less important than the fact that women dominate the left (short) side of the chart and men dominate the right (tall) side.

You say, with great glee, that “…the shortest athlete was a man!” That is hilariously irrelevant. You fail to note that, also, the tallest athlete is a man! Go figure!

Your interpretation of the second chart is even more egregiously misleading. You again zero in on the observation that there are a few women with the same level of testosterone as men (your “total overlap” nonsense). Put aside the possibility (likelihood) that high testosterone women were taking supplements. The valid statistical question is not complete separation, but differences in averages and majorities. The chart shows clearly that the few overlapped cases are so miniscule as to be logically discounted completely – the most basic statistics manual will define these as outliers. Almost all women show very low levels of testosterone, while men show a wide range of testosterone levels, with the vast majority significantly higher than those of women. Even the lowest-T men are higher than the vast majority of women. Again, I'm reading your charts.

You cite a bunch of other stats that are really low in relevance to the question. Sure, studies show that muscle mass and even bone density declines with hormone therapy, by 7-9%. Again, so what? The difference going in was likely far larger than that. Such therapy does not reduce height, and only partially reduces differences in bone density and muscle mass. And you make a big deal that trans women are not as strong as cis men. Again, and again, and again - so what? Completely irrelevant. We are talking about trans women competing with cis women, not cis men.

Also, you ignore the fact that we prohibit artificial hormone supplementation for male athletes, but you propose that it is OK if a male transitions to female.

You discount the cases normally cited as examples, such as Fallon Fox. But here is how one of her opponents she beat to a pulp described her match: During Fox's fight against Tamikka Brents on September 13, 2014, Brents suffered a concussion, an orbital bone fracture, and seven staples to the head in the 1st round. After her loss, Brents took to social media to convey her thoughts on the experience of fighting Fox: "I've fought a lot of women and have never felt the strength that I felt in a fight as I did that night. I can't answer whether it's because she was born a man or not because I'm not a doctor. I can only say, I've never felt so overpowered ever in my life and I am an abnormally strong female in my own right," she stated.

Finally, you label everyone who is opposed to trans women competing with cis women as “haters” and “TERFs”. But most opposition I have seen is only about trans women competing in sports with cis women. This position does not deny trans rights in any other area of life, so your opprobrium and insults do great damage to your credibility.

You can attack opponents, you can disagree with them, you can express your opinion any way you want, even with ad hominem attacks if that is what makes you happy. But stop trying to make your opinions legitimate by throwing out a bunch of statistics with your own personal misinterpretations. There is a book titled “How to Lie With Statistics”. Apparently you are familiar with it, but the book was intended as a demonstration of what not to do. You seem to think it was a “how to” book. You are entitled to your own opinion, not your own facts. You are an athlete, not a statistical analyst. Stay in your lane.

--

--

Michael Hurst
Michael Hurst

Written by Michael Hurst

Economist and public policy analyst, cyclist and paddler, and incorrigible old coot.

Responses (1)