Michael Hurst
2 min readSep 1, 2021

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You're right, I got mixed up on the income distribution - in 2020, those making less than 100K voted about 56-43 for Biden, almost the opposite for 100K+ voting for tRump. I forgot about the misunderstanding of a lot of writers early after the 2016 election. tRump's voters had a median household income about $11K higher than Biden's or Clinton's voters.

But this does not mean they were voting for tRump primarily because of concerns about future income. Research on indicators of racist attitudes, such as affinity with minority groups, or opposition to redistribution of income, shows that higher income people are more likely to exhibit racist attitudes.

Similarly, in both 2016 and 2020, 35-40% of voters had a college degree or higher, whereas over 80% of nonvoters had some college or less. White college grads then voted for Biden or Clinton by a 15 point margin, whereas about 70% of White voters with no college degree voted for tRump. And research on racist attitudes shows that less educated Whites are more likely to espouse racist attitudes.

The biggest discrepancy in voting, however, in both 2016 and 2020 was race. In 2016 White men voted for tRump 62-32, White women by 47-45; in 2020 these shares were 57-40 and 53-46 respectively. While the margins are similar to other discrepancies, the fact that the majority of voters are White make this a huge statistic.

But the defining statistic that goes to your argument of tRump voters driven by their fear of losing income, or mine being their fear of losing status because of race, is in the age distribution. People approaching or in retirement are less likely to dominated by concerns about future income, whereas those in their early or peak earning years are very much concerned with future income. Yet Boomers voted majority for tRump (about a 3-4 point margin) and the Silent Majority by a 16-19 point margin, whereas Millenials and Gen Zers voted for Clinton or Biden by a 20-25 point margin; even Gen Xers voted for Clinton or Biden by 3-6 points. And, as you might expect, research shows that racist attitudes are more prevalent among older Americans.

So it is undoubtedly true that the very rich will vote for tRump, as Republicants always do, because they want their tax cuts. But the evidence indicates that for the rest of tRump's voters, the primary motivating factor was racist attitudes.

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Michael Hurst
Michael Hurst

Written by Michael Hurst

Economist and public policy analyst, cyclist and paddler, and incorrigible old coot.

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